Global Tomato Processing Outlook 2025: WPTC Releases March Crop Update
Published: March 31, 2025
The World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) has published its latest global crop update, offering a detailed overview of planting and harvesting progress across major producing regions. The March 2025 report highlights both opportunities and challenges shaping the processed tomato industry this year.
Key Global Highlights
Southern Hemisphere: Harvests are progressing steadily.
Northern Hemisphere: Planting has begun, though heavy rainfall has delayed operations in Western Europe.
Global forecast: 2025 production is projected at 40.5 million tonnes, down 11.5% from 2024 (45.7 million tonnes).
Major drivers: Lower output in California (-7%) and China (-42%) account for most of the decline.
Regional Crop Updates (March 2025)
Europe & Mediterranean (AMITOM countries)
Bulgaria – Seedlings are ready for transplanting around mid-April. Forecast remains 40,000 tonnes, with potential for an additional 10,000 tonnes from a new agribusiness.
Egypt – Winter crop ends in April; early summer harvest begins mid-May. Forecast unchanged.
France – Updated forecast: 173,000 tonnes (20,000 tonnes organic). Wet fields in the southeast have delayed planting until early April. Prices: €110–133/t for conventional; €190–200/t for organic.
Greece – Adequate water supply, though cooler weather and wet fields delayed planting. Forecast: 450,000 tonnes. Season may be shorter as farmers hesitate to plant late crops.
Hungary – Production expected at 80,000 tonnes.
Iran – Planting underway in the south. Yields improved to 50–55 t/ha (vs. 40 t/ha a few years ago). Despite strong fresh tomato exports, processing volumes may reach ~2 million tonnes (up from 1.4m in 2024).
Italy –
North: Heavy rainfall delayed planting by 10–15 days. Companies aim to rebuild stocks after a weak 2024 harvest (2.4m actual vs. 2.8m expected). Forecast: 3m tonnes.
South: Water scarcity persists; Puglia’s planted area will drop by ~5,000 ha. Overall Italian production remains forecast at 5.6m tonnes.
Portugal – Flooded fields may push transplanting to weeks 15–16. Reduced planted area (-1,500 ha). Forecast unchanged at 1.4m tonnes.
Spain – Wet weather delayed planting in Andalusia and Extremadura. Forecast revised upward to 2.6m tonnes (from 2.4m), thanks to better outlook in Andalusia.
Turkey – Farmers dissatisfied with contract prices; seed sales lower than previous years. Final estimate pending, but forecast stable.
Ukraine – Transplanting to begin late April. Forecast remains 550,000 tonnes.
United States (California)
According to NASS data, California’s estimate stands at 9.25 million tonnes (10.2m short tons) on 81,000 hectares (200,000 acres). Yields could reach 51 t/acre, although the long-term average is closer to 48 t/acre.
China
Production forecast: 6 million tonnes, a sharp 42% drop from 2024. Reduced acreage creates potential opportunities for imports.
Global Production Outlook
Southern Hemisphere: 3.05m tonnes (stable).
Northern Hemisphere: 37.5m tonnes (-12%).
AMITOM countries: 17.15m tonnes (flat year-on-year).
Trade and Market Implications
California ketchup exports to Canada face competitiveness challenges due to a 25% tariff imposed in March 2025.
Example: $1,000/t ketchup now costs $1,250/t.
Canada may pivot to Mexico or domestic suppliers.
California processors could seek Asian or European markets.
China’s market may open for innovative products such as “Chip Dip”, provided they are locally produced (to avoid tariffs) and adapted to consumer tastes (e.g., spicier recipes).
Country Dynamics to Watch
Italy (5.6m tonnes): Planting delays in the north, water scarcity in the south. Strong domestic demand for stock replenishment.
China (6m tonnes): Significant production decline creates room for imports.
California (9.25m tonnes): Tariffs could shift ketchup trade flows; innovation in product formats may help maintain competitiveness.
Iran (2m tonnes): Expanding production, with rising influence in regional markets.
Conclusion
The 2025 processed tomato industry is entering a challenging season marked by lower global output and trade disruptions. California and China’s declines drive the overall contraction, while Europe shows a mixed picture with weather-related delays.
For exporters, the combination of tariffs, shifting consumer preferences, and regional production dynamics will reshape global tomato trade in 2025. Companies that adapt through innovation, localization, and diversification of export markets are more likely to thrive.